Basis and limits of the estimate
This is an early estimate with expected accuracy of approximately ±25–30% before surveys and design. Amounts in US dollars are used for planning and include the construction, equipment, design, permits, escalation, transport and contingencies shown.
The envelope excludes financing interest, debt issuance costs, initial operating losses, working capital, unresolved taxes and unknown site compensation. Operations, revenue and financing need separate models before a final investment decision.
Initial annual operating costs at completion are estimated at about USD 550–850 million, outside the USD 11 billion. They vary with wages, energy, airport and port traffic, and the treatment and subsidy model.
Comprehensive founding report · Source pages: 1، 3، 4، 5، 25، 27 ↗Full capital budget
| No. | Item | USD million |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rights options, surveys and due diligence | 250 |
| 2 | Site preparation, coastal protection and environmental works | 300 |
| 3 | Public airport capable of qualifying for international status | 1,800 |
| 4 | Commercial port, marina and ferries | 1,150 |
| 5 | Roads, electric transport and utility corridors | 500 |
| 6 | Energy, smart grid and storage | 800 |
| 7 | Desalination, water, wastewater and reuse | 400 |
| 8 | Fibre, communications, data centres and security | 350 |
| 9 | Automated warehouses, cold chain and inventory | 400 |
| 10 | Beverage, packaging and food processing plants | 300 |
| 11 | Fruit and vegetable farms and greenhouses | 250 |
| 12 | 150 smart villas and their facilities | 300 |
| 13 | Retail complex, hotel and family services | 225 |
| 14 | Shared AI and robotics platform | 400 |
| 15 | General hospital, security, emergency services and staff housing | 400 |
| 16 | Master design, permits, programme management and testing | 300 |
| 17 | Early price escalation allowance | 425 |
| 18 | Imports, transport to the site and construction escalation | 800 |
| 19 | Owner’s contingency for risks and changes | 900 |
| Total infrastructure and services outside the complexes | 10,250 | |
| Three medical complexes | 750 | |
| Final total | 11,000 |
Allocation and contingency control
USD 750 million for the complexes + USD 8,125 million for items 1–16 + USD 2,125 million for escalation, transport and contingency = USD 11,000 million. Any increase in scope or capacity requires an approved reallocation or separate financing.
- Maintain 500,000 m² as the land area of each complex; treating it as built floor area is incompatible with the complexes’ budget.
- Select suitable natural land for the airport and a deep, sheltered coast, and phase development with demand over two or more stages.
- Protect the owner’s contingency from aesthetic additions and unfunded capacity until site, aviation, port, soil and environmental risks are resolved.
- Update costs after surveys and at 10%, 30% and 60% design maturity, using an independent estimate.
- Link contracts to performance, energy, maintenance, localisation and data; do not finalise purchases before due diligence is passed.
What could change the cost
| Driver | Sensitivity | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Marine reclamation for the runway | Critical | Could add billions and rule out the site |
| Breakwater and dredging | Critical | Capital, environmental and ongoing maintenance costs |
| Land rights | High | Base allowance is only USD 250 million |
| Soil and liquefaction | High | Ground improvement and foundations |
| Shipping and imports | High | Medical, port and energy equipment |
| Currency and inflation | High | Multi-currency contracts and hedging |
| Early capacity expansion | High | Addressed through phasing that demonstrates demand |
Separate entities and clear responsibilities
| Proposed entity | Role |
|---|---|
| HoldCo PT PMA | Ownership, financing, governance and shareholder agreements |
| AssetCo / Developer | Land rights, shared infrastructure, development and leasing |
| HealthCo / MedTechCo | Healthcare complexes, with the medical device business separated to avoid conflicts of interest |
| Airport SPV | Airport development, concession and operation with an approved operator |
| Port SPV / BUP | Public port, concession and marine services |
| Utility SPV | Energy, water, wastewater and waste |
| DigitalCo | Fibre, data centres, robotics and security |
| Agri-FoodCo | Agriculture, factories and associated warehouses |
| Hospitality / Real Estate | Villas, hotel, retail and staff housing |
| Optional Yayasan | Grants, charitable treatment and community research within its licensed remit |
Governance committees and contracting model
- An investment and projects committee oversees scope, budget, contracts and value engineering. An audit and risk committee oversees finance, compliance, insurance, procurement integrity and conflicts of interest.
- A medicine and ethics committee covers quality, safety, rights, research, medicines and devices. An AI and data committee covers models, privacy, security, licences and incidents.
- An environment and community committee covers AMDAL, biodiversity, rights, access and grievances. A safety and security committee covers aviation, maritime operations, utilities and disasters.
- Separate sector EPC contracts with a central integration manager, plus long-lead supply packages for devices, turbines, transformers, desalination, fibre and port equipment.
- Operations and maintenance or concession contracts include performance indicators, training, knowledge transfer and spare parts within Indonesia.
- Open-book pricing during design, followed by a guaranteed maximum price once scope and surveys mature; independent value engineering reviews at 10%, 30% and 60%.
- Shared data, security, robotics and procurement services with clear pricing and data transfers, and separation of high-risk assets.
Capital allocation in the source chart
| Group | USD billion | Percentage shown in source |
|---|---|---|
| Three medical complexes | 0.750 | 6.8% |
| Direct project facilities | 8.125 | 73.9% |
| Escalation, transport and contingency | 2.125 | 19.3% |
